![]() |
Lineage distribution of SARS-CoV-2 across geographic regions of Ontario, Canada, Western New York, and New York City over time |
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted an unprecedented global effort to understand and mitigate the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 in Western New York (WNY), integrating individual patient-level genomic sequencing data with a spatially informed agent-based disease Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) computational model. The integration of genomic and spatial data enables a multi-faceted exploration of the factors influencing the transmission patterns of COVID-19, including genetic variations in the viral genomes, population density, and movement dynamics in New York State (NYS). Our genomic analyses provide insights into the genetic heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 within a single lineage, at region-specific resolutions, while our population analyses provide models for SARS-CoV-2 lineage transmission. Together, our findings shed light on localized dynamics of the pandemic, revealing potential cross-county transmission networks. This interdisciplinary approach, bridging genomics and spatial modeling, contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of COVID-19 dynamics. The results of this study have implications for future public health strategies, including guiding targeted interventions and resource allocations to control the spread of similar viruses.
![]() |
Commuter behavior dynamics in WNY. Estimated commuter populations originating in a specific county. (A) Commuter behavior with Erie County origins. (B) Commuter behavior from Niagara County origin. (C) Commuter behavior from Monroe County origin. (D) Composite Commuter behavior network. |
Full Reference:
Bard, J.E., Jiang, N., Emerson, J., Bartz, M., Lamb, N.A., Marzullo, B.J., Pohlman, A., Boccolucci, A., Nowak, N.J., Yergeau, D.A., Crooks, A.T. and Surtees, J. (2024), Genomic Profiling and Spatial SEIR Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission in Western New York, Frontiers in Microbiology, 15. Available at https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2024.1416580 (pdf)