Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Achieving Situational Awareness with Geolocated Social Media

Tuning back to our work on geosocial analysis we (Xiaoyi Yuan, Ron Mahabir, Arie Croitoru and myself) recently had a paper published in GeoJournal entitled "Achieving Situational Awareness of Drug Cartels with Geolocated Social Media." 
 
The overarching objective of this paper is to develop an approach that would enable the extraction of potentially relevant situational awareness-related information from geolocated raw data streams (in this example we use Twitter). We accomplish this goal by focusing on Named Entities (NEs) related to drug cartels rather than the raw text as a whole. Specifically, our analysis is performed on the NEs by first extracting them and then clustering them to identify relevant concepts/themes (using TextRazor). This approach gives rise to themes that can then be assessed for temporal and spatial patterns based on frequency in order to gain underlying insights into drug cartels. If is of interest to you below we provide the abstract to the paper, a diagram of our workflow and a sample of our results along with the link to the paper. Also the complete code for the analysis and results is available at https://bitbucket.org/xiaoyiyuan/cartel.
 

Abstract: Using geolocated tweets to achieve situational awareness is an often researched topic in disaster and emergency management. However, little has been done in the area of drug cartels, which, as transnational crime organizations, continue to pose great risk to the stability and safety of our communities. This paper made an initial effort in using geolocated social media (specifically Twitter) to achieve situational awareness of drug cartels through temporal and spatial analysis of derived named entity clusters. The results show that detecting peaks in the time series of frequently occurring entity clusters enabled the tracking of important events in public discourse surrounding drug cartels. Correlations between time series also provided valuable insights into the synchronicity between different events. Further examining the spatial distribution of key events for different countries, we identify thematic hotpots of public discourse on cartel activity. Our methodology also addresses issues of language ambiguity when working with noisy social media data in order to achieve situational awareness on drug cartels.

Keywords: Cartels, Social Media, Situational Awareness \and Temporal and Spatial Analysis.

The workflow of achieving situational awareness of drug cartels using geolocated tweets.

Tweet and entity counts by language and geolocation.

An example of tweets of high frequency on peak day in Venezuela

Heat maps of frequencies of a Cluster for Day 14 and Days 18-21.


Full Reference:
Yuan, X., Mahabir, R., Crooks, A.T. and Croitoru, A. (2021), Achieving Situational Awareness of Drug Cartels with Geolocated Social Media, GeoJournal. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10433-2 (pdf)

Friday, April 09, 2021

Agent-Based Modeling and the City

Turning our attention back to agent-based modeling, in the recently open access edited volume by Wenzhong Shi, Michael Goodchild, Michael Batty, Mei-Po Kwan and Anshu Zhang entitled Urban Informatics, Alison Heppenstall, Nick Malleson, Ed Manley and myself have a chapter entitled "Agent-Based Modeling and the City: A Gallery of Applications.

In the chapter we discuss cities through the lens of complex systems comprised of composed of people, places, flows, and activities. Moreover, we make the argument that as cities contain large numbers of discrete actors interacting within space and with other systems from nature, predicting what might happen in the future is a challenge. We base this argument on the fact that human behavior cannot be understood or predicted in the same way as in the physical sciences such as physics or chemistry. The actions and interactions of the inhabitants of a city, for example, cannot be easily described in in a physical science theory such as that of Newton’s Laws of Motion. This notion is captured quite aptly by a quote by Nobel laureate Murray Gell-Mann: “Think how hard physics would be if particles could think.” Building on these arguments we introduce readers to agent-based modeling as it offers a way to explore the processes that lead to patterns we see in cities from the bottom up but also allows us to incorporate ideas from complex systems (e.g., feedbacks, path dependency, emergence) along with providing a gallery of applications of geographically explicit agent-based models. 

We then discuss how agent-based models can incorporate various decision-making processes within them and  how we can integrate data within such models with a specific emphasis on geographical and social information. This leads us to a discussion on how agent-based modelers are utilizing machine learning (such as genetic algorithms, artificial neural networks, Bayesian classifiers, decision trees, reinforcement learning, to name but a few) and data mining (i.e. finding patterns in the data) within their models: from the design of the model, the execution of the model to that of the evaluation of the model. Finally,  we conclude the chapter with a summary and discuss new opportunities with respect to agent-based modeling and the city. One such opportunity is dynamic data assimilation which could be transformative for the ways that some systems, for example “smart” cities, are modeled. Our argument is that agent-based models are often used to simulate the behavior of complex systems, these systems often diverge rapidly from initial starting conditions. One way to prevent a simulation from diverging from reality would be to occasionally incorporate more up-to-date data and adjust the model accordingly (i.e., data assimilation). Data, especially streaming data produced through near real time observational datasets (e.g., social media, vehicle routing counters) could be utilized in such a case. If what we have written above is of interest, below we provide the abstract to chapter along with some figures which we use to illustrate some key points or concepts (such as dynamic data assimilation). Finally at the bottom post, we provide the full reference and a link to the chapter.

Abstract:
Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique that allows one to build artificial worlds and populate these worlds with individual agents. Each agent or actor has unique behaviors and rules which governs their interactions with each other and their environment. It is through these interactions that more macro phenomena emerge: for example, how individual pedestrians lead to the emergence of crowds. Over the last two decades, with the growth of computational power and data, agent-based models have evolved into one of the main modeling paradigms for urban modeling and for understanding the various processes which shape our cities. Agent-based models have been developed to explore a vast range of urban phenomena from that of micro-movement of pedestrians over seconds to that of urban growth over decades and many other issues in between. In this chapter we will introduce readers to agent-based modeling from simple abstract applications to those representing space utilizing geographical data not only for the creation of the artificial worlds but also for the validation and calibration of such models through a series of example applications. We will then discuss how big data, data mining, and machine learning techniques are advancing the field of agent-based modeling and demonstrate how such data and techniques can be leveraged into these models, giving us a new way to explore cities.

Key Words: Agent-based Modeling, Geographical Information Systems, Machine Learning, Urban Simulation.
Using geographical information as a foundation for artificial worlds.
A selection of GeoMason models across various spatial and temporal scales.
Dynamic data assimilation and agent-based modeling.

Full Reference:
Crooks, A.T., Heppenstall, A., Malleson, N. and Manley, E. (2021), Agent-Based Modeling and the City: A Gallery of Applications, in Shi, W., Goodchild, M., Batty, M., Kwan, M.-P., Zhang, A. (eds.), Urban Informatics, Springer, New York, NY, pp. 885-910. (pdf)

 

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

A Busy Day: A Talk and NetLogo Tutorial

It is not often that I get to give a talk in one country and tutorial in another country, but thanks to COVID and the internet, that was today. First up I was invited to give a talk to the GIScience Research Group (GIScRG) at the Royal Geographical Society with IB, in the UK. The talk was entitled "Analyzing and Modeling Urban Environments Utilizing Computational Social Science: Opportunities, Examples and Challenge" which covered many of the topics that have been blogged here over the last few year. Below is the abstract to the talk and if this peaks your interest, the talk was recorded and is embedded here.

Abstract: The beginning of this century marked a milestone in human history. For the first time, more than half of the world’s population lived in urban areas. This trend is expected to continue into the foreseeable future with 6.7 billion people projected to live in cities by 2050. This rapid urbanization will place unprecedented pressures on urban systems and their ability to provide basic of services. To plan for this future, we need to better understand the inherent complexity of urban systems from social, economic and environmental perspectives. In this talk, I will explore how such understanding can be gained through the lens of computational social science (CSS): the interdisciplinary science of complex social systems and their investigation through computational modeling (e.g. agent-based models) and related techniques. Through a series of example applications, I will demonstrate how new forms of geographical data (e.g. crowdsourced, social media etc.) not only provide us with a novel way of analyzing urban environments but how such data can be integrated into geographically explicit agent-based models. In addition, I will highlight that by focusing on individual, or groups of individuals, leads to more aggregate patterns emerging and show how model outcomes can be validated by such datasets. After these demonstrations, I will outline the challenges associated with this program of research, as using such data is not without its difficulties. Together, this work provides a brief overview of the current state of analyzing and modeling urban environments through the lens of CSS. 

I would like to thanks those who joined this webinar, especially those who asked questions. On a side note, the RGS-IBG GIScience Research Group YouTube Chanel also has a great number of talks relating to GIScience and Geographic Data Science which are well worth watching. 

Later in the day, Sara Metcalf and myself were invited to give a tutorial entitled "Introduction to Agent Based Models" as part of the University at Buffalo's Computational and Data-enabled Science and Engineering (CDSE) day. In this tutorial we introduced agent-based modeling, discussed a variety of applications and ran through a tutorial, that of creating the Schelling Segregation model in NetLogo.

Abstract: This session will introduce the method of agent-based modeling, give a tutorial, and discuss a range of applications. Agent-based models facilitate dynamic simulation of multi-scalar feedback mechanisms and interactions between heterogeneous individual agents and their environments. Agents may represent people, animals, organizations, or other kinds of discrete decision-making entities. Participants who wish to practice developing the agent-based models demonstrated in this session should install the free NetLogo software

For those who are interested, the tutorial as a PDF can be found at https://tinyurl.com/CDSEnetlogo and you can follow along by watching the movie below.

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Simulating Urban Shrinkage in Detroit via Agent-Based Modeling

While we are witnessing a growth in the world-wide urban population, not all cities are growing equally and some are actually shrinking (e.g., Leipzig in Germany; Urumqi in China; and Detroit in the United States). Such shrinking cities pose a significant challenge to urban sustainability from the urban planning, development and management point of view due to declining populations and changes in land use. To explore such a phenomena from the bottom up, Na (Richard) Jiang, Wenjing Wang, Yichun Xie and myself have a new paper entitled "Simulating Urban Shrinkage in Detroit via Agent-Based Modeling" published in Sustainability

This paper builds on our initial efforts in this area which was presented in a previous post. In that post we showed how a stylized model could not only simulate housing transactions but the aggregate market conditions relating to urban shrinkage (i.e., the contraction of housing markets). In this new paper, we significantly extend our previous work by: 1) enlarging the study area; 2) introducing another type of agent, specially, a bank type agent; 3) enhancing the trade functions by incorporating agents preferences when it comes to buying a house; 4) adding additional household dynamics, such as employment status change. These changes will are discussed extensively in the methodology section of the paper.

If this is of interest to you, below we provide the abstract of the paper along with some figures of the study area, graphical user interface, model logic and results. At the bottom of the post you can see the full reference to the paper along with a link to it. The model itself was created in NetLogo and a similar to our other works, we have a more detailed description of the model following the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol along with the source code and data needed to run the model at: http://bit.ly/ExploreUrbanShrinkage.

Abstract

While the world’s total urban population continues to grow, not all cities are witnessing such growth, some are actually shrinking. This shrinkage causes several problems to emerge, including population loss, economic depression, vacant properties and the contraction of housing markets. Such issues challenge efforts to make cities sustainable. While there is a growing body of work on studying shrinking cities, few explore such a phenomenon from the bottom-up using dynamic computational models. To fill this gap, this paper presents a spatially explicit agent-based model stylized on the Detroit Tri-County area, an area witnessing shrinkage. Specifically, the model demonstrates how the buying and selling of houses can lead to urban shrinkage through a bottom-up approach. The results of the model indicate that along with the lower level housing transactions being captured, the aggregated level market conditions relating to urban shrinkage are also denoted (i.e., the contraction of housing markets). As such, the paper demonstrates the potential of simulation to explore urban shrinkage and potentially offers a means to test policies to achieve urban sustainability.

Keywords: Agent-based modeling; housing markets; Urban Shrinkage; cities; Detroit; GIS

Study Area. 

Model graphical user interface, including input parameters, monitors (left) and the study area (middle) and charts recording key model properties.

Unified modeling language (UML) Diagram of the Model.

Household Decision-Making Process for Stay or Leave Current Location.

Heat Maps of Median (A) and Average (B) House Prices at the End of the Simulation where Demand equals Supply.

Full Reference: 

Jiang, N., Crooks, A.T., Wang, W. and Xie, Y. (2021), Simulating Urban Shrinkage in Detroit via Agent-Based Modeling, Sustainability, 13, 2283. Available at https://doi.org/10.3390/su13042283. (pdf)

 

Thursday, January 28, 2021

Call for Papers: Humans, Societies and Artificial Agents (HSAA)

 

As part of the Annual Modeling & Simulation Conference (ANNSIM 2021), Philippe Giabbanelli, and myself are organizing a tract entitled "Humans, Societies and Artificial Agents (HSAA)" which now has a call for papers out. 

Track description: Artificial societies have typically relied on agent-based models, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), or cellular automata to capture the decision-making processes of individuals in relation to places and/or social interactions. This has supported a wide range of applications (e.g., in archaeology, economics, geography, psychology, political science, or health) and research tasks (e.g., what-if scenarios or predictive models, models to guide data collection). Several opportunities have recently emerged that augment the capacity of artificial societies at capturing complex human and social behavior. Mixed-methods and hybrid approaches now enable the use of ‘big data’, for instance by combining machine learning with artificial societies to explore the model’s output (i.e., artificial societies as input to machine learning), define the model structure (i.e. machine learning as a preliminary to designing artificial societies), or run a model efficiently (i.e. machine learning as a proxy or surrogate to artificial societies). Datasets are also broader in type since artificial societies can now be built from text or generate textual as well as visual outputs to better engage end-users. 

Authors are encouraged to submit papers in the following areas: 

  • Applications of artificial societies (e.g., modeling group decisions and collective behaviors, emergence of social structures and norms, dynamics of social networks). 
  • Data collection for artificial societies (e.g., using simulations to identify data gaps, population simulations with multiple data sources, use of the Internet-of-Things). 
  • Design and implementation of artificial agents and societies (e.g., case studies, analyses of moral and ethical considerations). 
  • Participatory modeling and simulation. 
  • Policy development and evaluation through simulations. 
  • Predictive models of social behavior. 
  • Simulations of societies as public educational tools.
  • Mixed-methods (e.g., analyzing or generating text data with artificial societies, combining machine learning and artificial societies). 
  • Models of individual decision-making, mobility patterns, or socio-environmental interactions. 
  • Testbeds and environments to facilitate artificial society development. 
  • Tools and methods (e.g., agent-based models, case-based modeling, soft systems).

Key dates:

  • Papers due: March 1, March 22nd 2021. 
    • Accepted papers will be published in the conference proceedings and archived in ACM Digital Library and IEEE Explore. 
  • Conference (hybrid format), July 19 – 22, 2021.

Further information including paper guidelines can be found at: https://scs.org/annsim/