Urban Modelling: Algorithms, Calibrations, Predictions

Mike Batty of CASA "Urban Modelling: Algorithms, Calibrations, Predictions" which was originally published in 1976 has been republished by popular demand!

The book covers a plethora of topics, introducing the reader to simulation models and the need for such methods. For example, "simulation methods are used to derive the behaviour of the system when the system is too complex to be modelled using the more direct analytic approach (Batty, 1976)."

The book provides a summary of the first generation of urban models referring to the key authors and models such as Lowry (1964) model and it successor including the Pittsburgh Time-Oriented Metropolitan Model (TOMM), the Projective Land Use Model (PLUM) for the San Francisco area, and a wide variety of Activity Allocation and Stocks-Activities models. The book presents how such models were mainly developed for practical planning situations through metropolitan planning agencies or consultants in North America and in several European cities. How at first, these models where developed with the aim of solving land-use and transportation questions, later being employed to address a wider range of urban problems.

Anyone interested in urban modelling and spatial interaction models is recommended to explore this book.

Reference:
Lowry, I.S. (1964), A Model of Metropolis, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.

Agent Analyst Bird Migration Model

While I have blogged about Agent Analyst before (see here), the Redlands Institute have created some movies showing a simulation of bird migration patterns. While the exact details are not abundant, it appears they where developed to learn and demonstrate concepts relating to linking agent-based models with a GIS. Specifically using the Agent Analyst toolkit with Tracking Analyst in ArcMap (as shown in the movie below):

While this movie shows a live model run:


Finally the movie below shows how one can visualize the results in ESRI's ArcGlobe.



More movies from the Redlands Institute on YouTube can be found here.

Cormas and ComMod

Following on from the UVA Bay Game post I thought it was about time to blog about Cormas and the ComMod (Companion Modeling Approach) which focus on participatory agent-based modeling for resource management.

Why the interest? Take ecosystem management as an example, there are often many actors (stakeholders) who influence and control ecosystem management. For example, in the Chesapeake Bay there are farmers, local policy-makers, watermen, and developers. Such stakeholders have many different goals, associated feedbacks, negotiations etc... The question is how does one build models of such interactions?

Often when we build models of such interactions we do not always engage with stakeholders directly. Participatory modeling approaches such as companion modeling offers one way for such engagement. It uses various techniques, including role playing games in the sense that models are built with the direct involvement of stakeholders. Where modelers develop and validate model rules in conjunction with those one is modeling. Such a direct involvement of stakeholders focuses our attention on how decisions are made and what are the problems rather than just simulating the effects (e.g. Gimblett et al., 2002).

This brings me back to the ComMod approach and Cormas (an agent-based simulation framework, often used in conjunction with the ComMod approach). In the sense that ComMod is a iterative modeling process from the “bottom up.” ComMod provides an endless cycle of "field work and data analysis -> role playing games -> agent-based model development and implementation -> simulation -> field work again (Barreteau, 2003) as depicted below:

Some references for further reading:

• Barreteau, F.O. and others (2003), 'Our Companion Modelling Approach', Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 6(1), Available at http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/6/2/1.html.
• Etienne, M. (2003), 'SYLVOPAST: A Multiple Target Role-Playing Game to Assess Negotiation Processes in Sylvopastoral Management Planning', Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 6(2), Available at http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/6/2/5.html.
• Gilbert, N., Maltby, S. and Asakawa, T. (2002), 'Participatory Simulations for Developing Scenarios in Environmental Resource Management', in Urban, C. (ed.), Third Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation, SCS European Publishing House, Passau, Germany, pp. 67-72.
• Ramanath, A.M. and Gilbert, N. (2004), 'The Design of Participatory Agent-Based Social Simulations', Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 7(4), Available at http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/4/1.html.

To see some Cormas examples (Click here). Click here to see the ComMod program at work and here for the ComMod site. While the movie below shows one application of Cormas:

Agent-based model the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The Chesapeake Bay watershed is the largest estuary in the United States, its drainage basin covers 166,534 km2 in the District of Columbia and parts of six states: New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia (Wikipedia). It is home to around 27 million residents and is suffering many deteriorating environmental conditions brought on by a broad range of individuals, communities and industries that live and work in its boundaries.

The University of Virgina (UVA) has developed an agent-based model called Bay Game to explore the issues relating to the Chesapeake Bay watershed. To quote the site, the UVA Bay Game "allows players to take the roles of stakeholders, such as farmers, local policy-makers, watermen, and developers, make decisions about their livelihoods and professional expertise, and see the impacts of these decisions on the watershed and on each other over a twenty-year period. The Game is an educational tool for raising awareness about watershed stewardship; a tool for exploring and testing policy choices; and a tool for basic research in complex systems modeling."

More information about the UVA Bay Game can be found here. Below is a news clip featuring Philippe Cousteau who talks about the project.

Jobs and PhD studentships at CASA, UCL

ENFOLD-ing: Explaining, Modelling and Forecasting Global Dynamics

ENFOLD-ing is a major new multi-discliplinary EPSRC research grant which has been awarded to UCL under the direction of Sir Alan Wilson. Seven UCL departments are involved in the project. Here is a summary of the 5 Research Associate vacancies and 3 PhD studentships:

Research Associate (Complexity Tools workstream) Ref: 1133129
Funded for three years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is working with Steven Bishop and Frank Smith from UCL Mathematics. The main purpose is to initiate, develop, design and be responsible for the delivery of a programme of high quality research into the applied mathematics relevant to migration, trade, security and related issues of most interest to the overall aims of the ENFOLD-ing project. Essential skills include substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the programming languages C#, C++, Java (or evidence of ability to learn new programming languages), a postgraduate qualification in mathematics or a mathematical science related area,and expertise in mathematical modelling and /or complex systems and ability to develop models related to migration, trade, security. For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

Research Associate (Trade workstream) Ref: 1132947
Funded for three years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is working with Francesca Medda from the UCL Centre for Transport Studies and Sir Alan Wilson from the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis. The main purpose is to develop models of international trade on a global scale and to contribute to the delivery of a global intelligence system to support the overall aims of the ENFOLD-ing project. Essential skills include expertise in mathematical modelling and /or complex systems, expertise in international trade and/or economics and substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the programming languages C#, C++, Java, or evidence of ability to learn new programming languages. For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

Research Associate (Migration workstream) Ref: 1132973
Funded for two years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is primarily working with Pablo Mateos from UCL Geography and Michael Batty from the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis. The main purpose is to initiate, develop, design and be responsible for the delivery of a programme of high quality quantitative research into the relevant statistical, geographical and theoretical aspects related to migration analysis. Essential skills include substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the following programming languages: C#, C++, Java, Python, knowledge and experience of designing, constructing and analysing large databases and a postgraduate qualification in either a quantitative speciality within a social science discipline (such as statistics, geography, economics, sociology, epidemiology/ public health, GIS, spatial analysis) or a science discipline with experience in social science applications (such as computer science, maths, physics, medicine, and any other relevant disciplines).

For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

Research Associate (Security workstream) Ref: 1133143
Funded for five years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is primarily working with Shane Johnson from UCL Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science. The main purpose of the job, under the guidance of the investigators, is to initiate, develop, design and be responsible for the delivery of a programme of high quality research into security and related issues of most interest to the overall aims of the ENFOLD-ing project. Essential skills include expertise in statistical modelling and /or complex systems and ability to develop models related to security and crime, substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the programming languages C#, C++, Java, Stata, R or evidence of ability to learn new programming languages and knowledge and experience of constructing and manipulating, or of making valuable use of, large databases. For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

Research Associate (Synthesis workstream) Ref: 1132977
Funded for three years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is primarily working with Sir Alan Wilson and Francesca Medda from the UCL Centre for Transport Studies. The main purpose is to initiate, develop, design and be responsible for the delivery of a global intelligence system, and some associated modelling, of most interest to the overall aims of the ENFOLD-ing project; this includes working in and contributing to the ENFOLD-ing team effort. Essential skills include expertise in mathematical modelling and/or complex systems, a postgraduate qualification in an area related to the ENFOLD project, skills in computer visualisation and substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the programming languages C#, C++, Java, or evidence of ability to learn new programming languages. For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

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PhD STUDENTSHIPS
3 x PhD studentships are also available linked to the ENFOLD-ing project.
The studentship lasting for three years will cover tuition fees at home rate plus standard living expenses of £15,290 per annum. The studentships are linked to the following workstreams:

Trade workstream: Ref: 1133138
The applicants should possess a good honours degree (1st Class or 2:1 minimum) in any of the following disciplines: Economics, Statistics, Physics, Mathematics, Finance, or any related field. Knowledge in econometric and statistical analysis is highly desirable. It is beneficial if applicants have experience in numerical modelling and programming.
Full details, including eligibility and how to apply, are available on the UCL HR website.

Security workstream: Ref: 1133195
The applicants should posess:
(1) an MSc in a quantitative social science topic within political science, crime science, statistics, geography, economics, sociology, or a relevant discipline.
(2) strong motivation to conduct independent research on the field of security, and basic knowledge on contemporary security concerns
(3) excellent quantitative research skills in social sciences, including a good command of statistical analysis and programming knowledge of relevant packages (R, SAS, Stata, SPSS)
(4) the ability to work independently and take responsibility of a programme of work
(5) excellent written communication skills
Full details, including eligibility and how to apply, are available on the UCL HR website.

Migration workstream: Ref: 1133333
The applicants should possess a good honours degree (1st Class or 2:1 minimum) in any of the following disciplines: Economics, Statistics, Physics, Mathematics, Finance, or in any social science program with a strong quantitative component within Geography, Sociology, Epidemiology/ Public Health, GIS, Spatial Analysis or any other closely relevant subject area. An MSc in one of these areas or/and knowledge in econometric and statistical analysis is highly desirable. They should also have excellent quantitative research skills in social sciences including a good command of statistical analysis and programming knowledge of relevant packages (R, SAS,SPSS). As well as strong motivation to conduct independent research on the field of migration and basic knowledge of contemporary issues on migration.

Full details, including eligibility and how to apply, are available on the UCL HR website.