Agent Analyst Bird Migration Model

While I have blogged about Agent Analyst before (see here), the Redlands Institute have created some movies showing a simulation of bird migration patterns. While the exact details are not abundant, it appears they where developed to learn and demonstrate concepts relating to linking agent-based models with a GIS. Specifically using the Agent Analyst toolkit with Tracking Analyst in ArcMap (as shown in the movie below):

While this movie shows a live model run:


Finally the movie below shows how one can visualize the results in ESRI's ArcGlobe.



More movies from the Redlands Institute on YouTube can be found here.

Cormas and ComMod

Following on from the UVA Bay Game post I thought it was about time to blog about Cormas and the ComMod (Companion Modeling Approach) which focus on participatory agent-based modeling for resource management.

Why the interest? Take ecosystem management as an example, there are often many actors (stakeholders) who influence and control ecosystem management. For example, in the Chesapeake Bay there are farmers, local policy-makers, watermen, and developers. Such stakeholders have many different goals, associated feedbacks, negotiations etc... The question is how does one build models of such interactions?

Often when we build models of such interactions we do not always engage with stakeholders directly. Participatory modeling approaches such as companion modeling offers one way for such engagement. It uses various techniques, including role playing games in the sense that models are built with the direct involvement of stakeholders. Where modelers develop and validate model rules in conjunction with those one is modeling. Such a direct involvement of stakeholders focuses our attention on how decisions are made and what are the problems rather than just simulating the effects (e.g. Gimblett et al., 2002).

This brings me back to the ComMod approach and Cormas (an agent-based simulation framework, often used in conjunction with the ComMod approach). In the sense that ComMod is a iterative modeling process from the “bottom up.” ComMod provides an endless cycle of "field work and data analysis -> role playing games -> agent-based model development and implementation -> simulation -> field work again (Barreteau, 2003) as depicted below:

Some references for further reading:

• Barreteau, F.O. and others (2003), 'Our Companion Modelling Approach', Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 6(1), Available at http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/6/2/1.html.
• Etienne, M. (2003), 'SYLVOPAST: A Multiple Target Role-Playing Game to Assess Negotiation Processes in Sylvopastoral Management Planning', Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 6(2), Available at http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/6/2/5.html.
• Gilbert, N., Maltby, S. and Asakawa, T. (2002), 'Participatory Simulations for Developing Scenarios in Environmental Resource Management', in Urban, C. (ed.), Third Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation, SCS European Publishing House, Passau, Germany, pp. 67-72.
• Ramanath, A.M. and Gilbert, N. (2004), 'The Design of Participatory Agent-Based Social Simulations', Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 7(4), Available at http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/4/1.html.

To see some Cormas examples (Click here). Click here to see the ComMod program at work and here for the ComMod site. While the movie below shows one application of Cormas:

Agent-based model the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The Chesapeake Bay watershed is the largest estuary in the United States, its drainage basin covers 166,534 km2 in the District of Columbia and parts of six states: New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia (Wikipedia). It is home to around 27 million residents and is suffering many deteriorating environmental conditions brought on by a broad range of individuals, communities and industries that live and work in its boundaries.

The University of Virgina (UVA) has developed an agent-based model called Bay Game to explore the issues relating to the Chesapeake Bay watershed. To quote the site, the UVA Bay Game "allows players to take the roles of stakeholders, such as farmers, local policy-makers, watermen, and developers, make decisions about their livelihoods and professional expertise, and see the impacts of these decisions on the watershed and on each other over a twenty-year period. The Game is an educational tool for raising awareness about watershed stewardship; a tool for exploring and testing policy choices; and a tool for basic research in complex systems modeling."

More information about the UVA Bay Game can be found here. Below is a news clip featuring Philippe Cousteau who talks about the project.

Jobs and PhD studentships at CASA, UCL

ENFOLD-ing: Explaining, Modelling and Forecasting Global Dynamics

ENFOLD-ing is a major new multi-discliplinary EPSRC research grant which has been awarded to UCL under the direction of Sir Alan Wilson. Seven UCL departments are involved in the project. Here is a summary of the 5 Research Associate vacancies and 3 PhD studentships:

Research Associate (Complexity Tools workstream) Ref: 1133129
Funded for three years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is working with Steven Bishop and Frank Smith from UCL Mathematics. The main purpose is to initiate, develop, design and be responsible for the delivery of a programme of high quality research into the applied mathematics relevant to migration, trade, security and related issues of most interest to the overall aims of the ENFOLD-ing project. Essential skills include substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the programming languages C#, C++, Java (or evidence of ability to learn new programming languages), a postgraduate qualification in mathematics or a mathematical science related area,and expertise in mathematical modelling and /or complex systems and ability to develop models related to migration, trade, security. For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

Research Associate (Trade workstream) Ref: 1132947
Funded for three years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is working with Francesca Medda from the UCL Centre for Transport Studies and Sir Alan Wilson from the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis. The main purpose is to develop models of international trade on a global scale and to contribute to the delivery of a global intelligence system to support the overall aims of the ENFOLD-ing project. Essential skills include expertise in mathematical modelling and /or complex systems, expertise in international trade and/or economics and substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the programming languages C#, C++, Java, or evidence of ability to learn new programming languages. For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

Research Associate (Migration workstream) Ref: 1132973
Funded for two years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is primarily working with Pablo Mateos from UCL Geography and Michael Batty from the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis. The main purpose is to initiate, develop, design and be responsible for the delivery of a programme of high quality quantitative research into the relevant statistical, geographical and theoretical aspects related to migration analysis. Essential skills include substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the following programming languages: C#, C++, Java, Python, knowledge and experience of designing, constructing and analysing large databases and a postgraduate qualification in either a quantitative speciality within a social science discipline (such as statistics, geography, economics, sociology, epidemiology/ public health, GIS, spatial analysis) or a science discipline with experience in social science applications (such as computer science, maths, physics, medicine, and any other relevant disciplines).

For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

Research Associate (Security workstream) Ref: 1133143
Funded for five years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is primarily working with Shane Johnson from UCL Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science. The main purpose of the job, under the guidance of the investigators, is to initiate, develop, design and be responsible for the delivery of a programme of high quality research into security and related issues of most interest to the overall aims of the ENFOLD-ing project. Essential skills include expertise in statistical modelling and /or complex systems and ability to develop models related to security and crime, substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the programming languages C#, C++, Java, Stata, R or evidence of ability to learn new programming languages and knowledge and experience of constructing and manipulating, or of making valuable use of, large databases. For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

Research Associate (Synthesis workstream) Ref: 1132977
Funded for three years in the first instance at Grade 7 spine point 29 (£31,778 including London Weighting)

This post is primarily working with Sir Alan Wilson and Francesca Medda from the UCL Centre for Transport Studies. The main purpose is to initiate, develop, design and be responsible for the delivery of a global intelligence system, and some associated modelling, of most interest to the overall aims of the ENFOLD-ing project; this includes working in and contributing to the ENFOLD-ing team effort. Essential skills include expertise in mathematical modelling and/or complex systems, a postgraduate qualification in an area related to the ENFOLD project, skills in computer visualisation and substantial knowledge & programming experience in any of the programming languages C#, C++, Java, or evidence of ability to learn new programming languages. For full details and to apply for this job, please review the advert on the UCL HR website.

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PhD STUDENTSHIPS
3 x PhD studentships are also available linked to the ENFOLD-ing project.
The studentship lasting for three years will cover tuition fees at home rate plus standard living expenses of £15,290 per annum. The studentships are linked to the following workstreams:

Trade workstream: Ref: 1133138
The applicants should possess a good honours degree (1st Class or 2:1 minimum) in any of the following disciplines: Economics, Statistics, Physics, Mathematics, Finance, or any related field. Knowledge in econometric and statistical analysis is highly desirable. It is beneficial if applicants have experience in numerical modelling and programming.
Full details, including eligibility and how to apply, are available on the UCL HR website.

Security workstream: Ref: 1133195
The applicants should posess:
(1) an MSc in a quantitative social science topic within political science, crime science, statistics, geography, economics, sociology, or a relevant discipline.
(2) strong motivation to conduct independent research on the field of security, and basic knowledge on contemporary security concerns
(3) excellent quantitative research skills in social sciences, including a good command of statistical analysis and programming knowledge of relevant packages (R, SAS, Stata, SPSS)
(4) the ability to work independently and take responsibility of a programme of work
(5) excellent written communication skills
Full details, including eligibility and how to apply, are available on the UCL HR website.

Migration workstream: Ref: 1133333
The applicants should possess a good honours degree (1st Class or 2:1 minimum) in any of the following disciplines: Economics, Statistics, Physics, Mathematics, Finance, or in any social science program with a strong quantitative component within Geography, Sociology, Epidemiology/ Public Health, GIS, Spatial Analysis or any other closely relevant subject area. An MSc in one of these areas or/and knowledge in econometric and statistical analysis is highly desirable. They should also have excellent quantitative research skills in social sciences including a good command of statistical analysis and programming knowledge of relevant packages (R, SAS,SPSS). As well as strong motivation to conduct independent research on the field of migration and basic knowledge of contemporary issues on migration.

Full details, including eligibility and how to apply, are available on the UCL HR website.

AAG Sessions Finalized

The AAG has released their preliminary program for its up and coming Annual Meeting in Washington DC. Part of which are several sessions entitled Perspectives on Geographic Complexity. These sessions where organized by Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Andrew Crooks, Alison Heppenstall, Moira Zellner, Suzana Dragicevic, Debarchana Ghosh, Tom Evans and Seth Spielman. The session description is as follows:

Understanding geographical systems represents one of the greatest challenges of our time. Complexity has emerged as a useful paradigm to effectively study linked human, socioeconomic, health, and biophysical systems at a variety of different spatial and temporal scales. As a result, descriptive and predictive models of various levels of sophistication and using mostly agents, genetic algorithms, cellular automata and neural networks are now beginning to regularly appear in the geographic literature. However, there still remains many unresolved conceptual, technical and application challenges associated with these complexity based models. The goal of this session is to focus on the following themes:

1. Conceptual: shared and unique complexity signatures in geographic systems; existing and emerging geographical and complexity theories; epistemological and ontological influences; complexity based model designs; networks and hybrid models; linking classical and spatial statistics in complexity studies.
2. Technical: space-time patterns and dynamics; standardizing the development and representation of complex systems; rule selection and implementation; multiple-scale interactions and structure, system evolution and self-organization; learning and adaptation; calibration, validation and verification; path-dependence; non-linearity.
3. Applications: effectiveness of complexity models when embedded in political, institutional and socio-economic systems; human-environment interactions; earth systems science; land use science; landscape ecology; sustainability analysis; infectious and chronic disease; neighborhood effects on health.

We had numerous papers submitted and we have divided them up into 7 sessions as you can see below. The sessions start on Saturday, 4/17/10 and conclude on Sunday, 4/18/10.

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (1): Theories and Methods

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 8:00 AM - 9:40 AM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Alison Heppenstall - University of Leeds

Abstracts:

Authors: *Sara Metcalf & Michael Widener - University at Buffalo

Title: S(t)imulating (S)pace: Cultivating a Postmodern Geographic (Con)science

Authors: *Amit Patel, School of Public Policy, George Mason University, Phoram Shah - MPA

Title: Slum Formation Theory: A Simulation Approach

Authors: *Itzhak Benenson - Tel Aviv University, Israel, Erez Hatna - Wageningen University, The Netherlands

Title: Warning, the Rationality of Spatial Agents is Bounded!

Authors: *Monica Wachowicz - Wageningen UR, Jack Owens - Idaho State University

Abstract Title: Space-Time Representation of Narrative Knowledge

Author: *Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, - George Mason University

Title: MASON AfriLand: A Regional Multi-Country Agent-Based Model with Cultural and Environmental Dynamics

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (2): Methods and Data Issues

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 10:00 AM - 11:40 AM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Alison Heppenstall - University of Leeds

Abstracts:

Authors: *H. Van Dyke Parunak & Sven A. Brueckner- Vector Research Center, Division of TTGSI

Title: Polyagent-Based Mapping of Aleatoric Uncertainty in Geospatial Trajectories

Author: *Geoffrey Jacquez - BioMedware, Inc.

Title: space-time intelligence system software for the analysis of complex geographic systems

Authors: *Wenwu Tang - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, David A. Bennett - University of Iowa, Shaowen Wang - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Title: Parallel Agent-based Modeling for Large-scale Geographic Systems

Authors: *Burak Güneralp - Yale University, Michael K. Reilly - Stanford University, & Karen C. Seto - Yale University

Abstract Title: Simulating feedbacks across and among scales in land change science: An operational framework

Author: *Arika Ligmann-Zielinska - Michigan State University

Title: Variance-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis of Decision Making Mechanisms in an Agent-Based Model of Land Use Change

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (3): Disease and Health Modeling

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 12:40 PM - 2:20 PM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Seth Spielman - Brown University

Abstracts:

12:40 PM Author(s): *Debarchana Ghosh - Kent State University, Rajarshi Guha - National Institute of Health

Title: Identifying optimal risk factors for prediction and interpretation of West Nile virus occurrences using Neural Network

Author: *Gabriela Alcaraz V. - University of Hohenheim

Title: Use of GIS for the analysis of food and nutrition security. An application to Guatemala.

Authors: Joshua King - Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, *Peter J. Deadman - University of Waterloo

Title: An Agent Based Approach to Epidemiological Modelling of Malaria

Author: *Lara J. Iverson - SUNY University at Buffalo

Title: Incorporating Gender and Stigma in Modeling Tuberculosis Transmission: A Complex Systems Approach

Authors: *Monica Teran-Hernandez - Universidad Nacional Autonoma De Mexico, Unam, Miguel Aguilar Robledo - Universidad AutÓnoma De San Luis Potosl, Jaqueline Calderon Hernandez - Universidad Autonoma De San Luis Potosl, Carlos Felix Garrocho Rangel - Colegio Mexiquense, Ac

Title: The Spatial Dynamics of oncogenic Human Papillomavirus Infection in women from San Luis Potosí, Mexico: Some Preliminary Results

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (4): Agent-Based Modeling and Sustainability Science

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 2:40 PM - 4:20 PM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Steven M. Manson - University Of Minnesota

Abstracts:

Author: *Qing Tian & Dan Brown - University of Michigan

Abstract Title: Exploring the Dynamics of Sustainability of Coupled Human-Environment Systems using Agent-based Modeling: A Case Study in the Poyang Lake Region of China

Authors: *Dawn C. Parker - University of Waterloo, Daniel G. Brown - University of Michigan
Tatiana Filatova - University of Twente, Rick Riolo - University of Michigan, Derek T. Robinson - University of Michigan, Shipeng Sun - University of Minnesota

Title: A first assessment of the role of land-market dynamics in agent-based land exchange models

Authors: *David A. Bennett - Department of Geography, University of Iowa, Wenwu Tang - Department of Geography and National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Title: Modeling the Sustainable Use of Common-Pool Resources Using Spatially Aware Intelligent Agents

Author: *Luis E. Fernandez - Carnegie Institution for Science

Title: A Coupled Agent Based Model Platform Examining the Sustainability of Biofuels Production in the Brazilian Cerrado

Authors: *Stephen J. Walsh - University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill & Carlos F. Mena - Universidad San Francisco de Quito

Title: Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (5): Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Change

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 4:40 PM - 6:20 PM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Suzana Dragicevic - Simon Fraser University

Abstracts:

4:40 PM Authors: *Moira Zellner - University of Illinois-Chicago & Antonio Aguilera - Colegio de San Luis

Abstract Title: Exploring the effects of land use policies in urban-rural fringe areas in the Mexican context: An agent-based approach

5:00 PM Authors: *Tom Evans - Indiana University, Kellly Caylor - Princeton University
Sean Sweeney - Indiana University, Mateus Batistella - EMBRAPA, Juliana Farinaci - University of Campinas, Emilio Moran - Indiana University

Abstract Title: Balancing Social and Ecological Complexity in Models of Reforestation in Indiana (USA) and São Paulo (Brazil)

5:20 PM Authors: *Christopher Bone, Lilian Alessa, Andy Kliskey - Resilience and Adaptive Management Group, University of Alaska Anchorage & Mark Altaweel - University of Chicago

Abstract Title: Simulating Community Resilience to Freshwater Dynamics with Social Agents

5:40 PM Authors: *Tim Gulden, Gabriel Balan, Jeffrey Bassett, Atesmachew B Hailegiorgis, William G Kennedy - George Mason University & Mark Rouleau - Michigan Technological University

Abstract Title: An agent-based model of land-use driven conflict among pastoralists in the Mandera region of East Africa

6:00 PM Author: *David Donato - United States Geological Survey

Abstract Title: Measuring Conformance of a Grid State to a Stochastic Cellular-Automata Land-Change Model

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (6): Urban Systems I

Sunday, 4/18/10, from 8:00 AM - 9:40 AM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Moira Zellner - University of Illinois-Chicago

Abstracts:

8:00 AM Authors: *Suzana Dragicevic & Liliana Perez - Simon Fraser University

Abstract Title: Simulating Disease Outbreak in an Urban Environment: Agent Based Approach

8:20 AM Author: *Atesmachew Hailegiorgis - Department of Computational Social Science, Center of Social Complexity, George Mason University

Abstract Title: Changing Residence in the City: An agent based model of Residential Mobility in Arlington County

8:40 AM Author: *Yichun Xie - Eastern Michigan University

Abstract Title: Simulating Urban Development in Water-constrained Northwest China: A Case Study along the Mid-Section of Silk Road

9:00 AM Authors: *Ninghua Wang - San Diego Stata University/University of California Santa Barbara & Lin Liu - University of Cincinnati

Abstract Title: Analyzing spatial effects of hotspot policing with a simulation approach

9:20 AM Authors: *Dominik P.H. Kalisch, *Hermann Koehler, Reinhard Koenig, Jens Steinhoefel & Frauke Anders - Bauhaus University, Weimar

Abstract Title: Computer-Based Methods for a Socially Sustainable Urban and Regional Planing


Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (7): Urban Systems II

Sunday, 4/18/10, from 10:00 AM - 11:40 AM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Andrew Crooks - George Mason University

Abstracts:

Authors: *Fraser Morgan & David O’Sullivan - University of Auckland

Abstract Title: Residential developers: Competition, behaviour and the resulting urban landscape

Authors: *Christian Urich, Robert Sitzenfrei, & Wolfgang Rauch - Unit of Environmental Engineering, University of Innsbruck

Abstract Title: Stochastic Design of Urban Areas for Benchmarking Energy Strategies

Authors: *Raymond Cabrera & Peter J Deadman - University of Waterloo

Abstract Title: Household networks and urbanization in an agent-based model of the Amazonian varzea

Authors: *Jing Wu & Zheng Wang - Chinese Academy of Sciences

Abstract Title: Agent-based simulation of the spatial evolution of the historical population in China

Author: *Hoda Osman - George Mason University

Title: Urban Growth and Land Titling: An agent-based comparative model of two Informal Settlements in Cairo, Egypt


All the sessions are sponsored by the AAG's
Spatial Analysis and Modeling Specialty Group
Geographic Information Science and Systems Specialty Group
Human Dimensions of Global Change Specialty Group

Note * represents the speaker