Abstract:
Forced migration of populations is a topic of increasingly national and international importance due to security, international relations, and humanitarian considerations. Despite its importance, there has been a dearth of quantitative research to support modeling and simulation of this topic, thus hindering our ability to better understand this phenomenon. Motivated by this gap, this research leverages the recent availability of diverse set of data related to forced migration, including regime legitimacy, violence, human rights violations, conflict, socio-political mobilization, intervening opportunities, and social media. The purpose of this article is to explore the applicability and utility of open-source data in a system dynamics model to forecast population displacement, and to illustrate the benefits of using a system dynamics approach to modeling displaced population on a national and international scale. Our results suggest that this proposed approach can be used to understand such migration processes and simulate possible scenarios.
Keywords: forced migration, refugee, system dynamics, prediction model, Middle East.
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High-level causal loop diagram for forced migration. |
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Migration routes in simulation (i.e., Greece, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan). |
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Simulation refugee counts for paths to different countries (i.e., Greece, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan). |
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Model validation - comparing predicted system dynamics model refugee counts vs. reference UNHCR refugee counts. |
Full reference:
Curry, T., Croitoru, A. and Crooks, A.T. (2023), Modeling Forced Migration: A System Dynamic Approach, The Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference (ANNSIM), Hamilton, ON. (pdf)
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